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The Demographics
The global issue of an aging population is dramatically exaggerated in China as a result of the sharp contrast between the large families encouraged during the 50s and 60s and the small families enforced since the 1970s. The number of people in the working population is expected to peak in 2010, as much as 40 years before the total population reaches its zenith, with the result that by 2050 30% of the population will be over 60 years old.
There is thus an enormous pressure on the young to perform academically in the hope that they will secure the most lucrative positions afterwards, since each one is the social security for 5 or 6 adults. China produces 5 million graduates each year and each year 200,000 Chinese go overseas to study - but so far only 30% have returned.
With responsibility for supporting the older generations traditionally resting on the men (girls being expected to look after their in-laws), the gender balance in the population has also been worsening since 1979 so that as a national average there are now more than 120 boys born for every 100 girls.
The population has also been shifting from rural to urban areas. At the establishment of the PRC in 1949, 15% of the population was urban; by 2000, it was 40%; by 2035 it is estimated to be 70%. There are already 665 cities in China with more than 2 million people. (By way of comparison, the UK took 120 years and the US 80 years to urbanise to the extent that China has in 20 years).
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