Economic Ups and Downs

The IMF have produced their July update world economic outlook with a strong global forecast.

Predictions have however been downgraded for growth in the UK economy. This was due to "weaker-than-expected activity" in the first quarter of the year, with predicted growth for 2017 adjusted from 2% to 1.7%. 2018 UK growth remains at 1.8%, as the IMF view the UK's fundamentals as strong. They did however warn that a breakdown in Brexit negotiations could threaten stable growth.

We continue to monitor the UK closely, taking into consideration any movements in its political and economic landscape. This forms a key objective of our strategic review and which was reinforced recently by the Government of Jersey’s Brexit Update.

In contrast to the UK’s performance forecast, other eurozone areas such as France, Germany, Italy and Spain, received slight upgrades. A notable downgrade from 2.3% to 2.1% was given to the US with Maurice Obstfeld, the IMF’s economic counsellor attributing this to the fact that ‘fiscal policy will be less expansionary’ than previously anticipated, and to uncertainty over the timing of policy changes in the current climate.

So what does this all mean for Jersey? The growth in the global economy bodes well for our international development programme. Our priorities remain the key frontier markets of the GCC, India and Greater China, traditional markets of the UK and western Europe and secondary markets in South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya. It is important that we continue to operate with a diversified market strategy as increased globalisation and the continuing rise of emerging economies is opening up a range of new opportunities alongside our traditional, more mature markets.

Global HNWI wealth is projected to nearly triple in size from 2006-2025 to surpass US$100 trillion by 2025. So the demand for services that facilitate efficient cross-border transactions and support the internationally mobile is on the rise and Jersey is well-placed to meet these needs.

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