With the Russian host of the G20 and China at odds with the United States, Britain, and France over Syria, it is likely the G20 gathering in St Petersburg will be a strained affair.
Obama is not meeting Putin to avoid the need to provide a press briefing on their discussions and any further airing of differences, neither is he meeting the British Prime Minister David Cameron, presumably to spare his blushes on the Parliamentary defeat on taking military action against Syria.
President Obama is however meeting President Hollande of France, as the two nations confer and what form any military intervention will take.
Given the G20 leaders are struggling to agree on very much they will want to be able to signal some progress, and in this respect the signing of an agreement to tackle global tax avoidance is likely to have wide support.
The Multi national companies will be in the dock and much will be made of the OECD recommendations on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting. I expect their July 15th Action plan to be adopted in its entirety.
Already pre summit the Chinese have signed up to the Multi Lateral Convention on Tax now being championed by the OECD, and Automatic Information Exchange (AEOI) will feature prominently going forward. It appears the Dutch government have taken pre emptive action in announcing a review of their treaties with key African countries
How long before the OECD is instructed to introduce a new list of non cooperative territories who have not signed the multi lateral convention and committed to AEOI? I suspect not very long at all.
From Jersey’s perspective we are committed to the programme and have already moved in step with it. We have agreed US and UK FATCA, G5 FATCA style pilot, OECD Multi Lateral and EUSD AEOI.
The current French issue on information exchange and Jersey will prove to be a temporary bump in the road and will be resolved. I am confident that strong evidence backing the OECDs independent peer review assertion that we are ‘responsive and cooperative’ will emerge as part of the process of resolution.